China Translated

As part of preparations for writing an article on the forthcoming US-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue I spoke to one of the leading US experts on China’s environmental issues, Elizabeth Economy.  She was kind enough to agree that I could reproduce the whole interview here.

Chinatranslated: In your discussion of China’s participation in the framework negotiation on climate change (published in The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy) you characterised the Chinese position in 1998 as reflecting the same set of interests as in the early 1990s: the need for developed countries to take action first; continued technology transfer from developed countries under favourable terms; and no commitments or timetables for emissions reductions. 

More than 10 years on, what has changed?  What would need to happen for China to take a more proactive stance?
 
Elizabeth Economy: There has been virtually no change in the Chinese negotiating stance on climate change in over 25 years: the Chinese will play if the world will pay. That is why the Clean Development Mechanism is such a hit in China.

Beyond that, however, much has changed. On the downside, in the late 1990s, the world thought China would double its coal consumption during 2000-2020; instead it doubled its coal use by 2007 from 2000, making it the largest emitter of CO2 in the world. In the late 1990s, the greatest challenge China posed to climate change in terms of deforestation was within its own borders. Today, China is the largest importer of illegally logged timber in the world, contributing to serious deforestation throughout Southeast Asia and Africa in particular.

On the upside, China has a far more extensive climate change bureaucracy in place to manage both the technical and political aspects of climate change, it is ratcheting up the role of renewables in its energy mix, and it is taking steps to reduce energy intensity in significant sectors of the economy.
 
For China to adopt a more aggressive climate change policy will require someone within China’s leadership to champion the issue. What former Premier Zhu Rongji did for China’s accession to the WTO—in essence saying that there will be serious short term pain for long term gain—someone needs to do in China in the lead- up to Copenhagen. 
 
Chinatranslated: In your recent testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations committee you stressed the importance of building on and working with existing mechanisms, especially the Strategic Economic Dialogue.  What prominence do you expect climate change to have within the new Strategic & Economic Dialogue and is there a danger it will be lost in the middle of discussions of economic and security issues?
Your testimony also suggests various ways in which the US can exert positive pressure on China to step up its climate change strategy, including leading by example, listening to Chinese concerns, and focussing on urbanisation as a key issue.  What other sticks and carrots does the US and the world have to exert positive pressure on China on this issue?
What is the best outcome we can hope for on climate change from the first round of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue?

Elizabeth Economy: With the new U.S. administration, climate change has jumped to the top of the agenda, along with economic and security issues. Climate is, itself, an economic and security issue. I think initially, there was a seriously mistaken impression that working on climate change with China would be easy—somehow there had been a missed opportunity over the past eight years. I think the administration now realizes that climate is every bit as difficult an issue to negotiate as any trade or security issue. I don’t think the issue will get lost. I just don’t anticipate a true breakthrough.
In addition to working with China, the most significant potential leverage the United States could have would be to work with other developing nations to put pressure on China to do more. China considers itself a champion of the developing world. In many respects pressure from the small island states or African nations that will be devastated by climate change will do far more than more lectures from the US or EU.
What I would like to see is a progress report on the energy and climate-related initiatives the two countries began at the last SED. What’s working? What’s not? I am not a big believer in simply launching new initiatives for the sake of having something to announce.
I think the best we can hope for, in addition to announcements of various small scale joint efforts such as the new clean energy research centers, would be for the Chinese to indicate that they are prepared to continue with steep cuts in energy intensity and dramatic moves forward on renewables as far out as 2025. These are the types of initiatives they are excited about because they can be done within the context of continuing to grow their economy and enhancing energy security. Otherwise, I don’t expect much.

You can see more of Elizabeth Economy’s work at the Council for Foreign Relations website here.

China - Africa relations, Energy, Environment, US-China Relations